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Taking in the Action

Posted on March 23, 2015 by Welton Diggs

Right now is the best time to get great odds on an underdog World Series champion. The season hasn’t yet begun, but that doesn’t mean that there isn’t valuable information that you can use to give yourself an edge when it comes to preseason betting on Major League Baseball. There are a number of resources that you can and should look to to figure this out with a higher degree of success than others.

First, look to last year. Which teams did well, and which did not? There are usually many reasons given for these attributes, so you need to figure out if there will be consistency. For example, the San Francisco Giants won it all last year, but will they have the same resources in 2015 to do it again? Hunter Pence just broke his arm, and as he was a major part of getting to the playoffs last year, there’s a strong chance the team will be negatively influenced. This is just one example, but many more could be cited for any team.

You can also look at how preseason games are going. Now that the different leagues in Spring Training are all under way, there’s a lot of betting action, and many players–including some that will never play during the regular season–are getting swings and playing time. Be careful here; the standings mean absolutely nothing. Instead, you need to be looking at individual performances. Look at whether or not stars maximize their playing time or if they are too rusty. Look at how younger prospects adjust. And look to see how mid-level players are differing from the year before. Add up a team’s worth of players to get a feel for how they compare to the previous year.

You should always read up on what the experts are saying. There are tons of analysts out there thanks to the web, so just make sure you go with reputable opinions. People like Bill James and Ron Sandler have great resources available, but there are many self-proclaimed experts out there that just do not have the skills to give you valuable advice. It’s up to you to decipher what is trustworthy and what is not–especially at this point in the year. This is why it’s important that you be able to look at stats and other pieces of data yourself and be able to make sense of it.

Combining all of these three methods, along with a good way to hunt for the best lines, is going to give you an advantage. You probably already have a firm grasp on which teams will be good this year, and which teams will be below average. You might already have a strong idea of who you want to win the World Series. If this is the case, then you need to get the most out of your money. For example, if you know that you’ll be betting on the Yankees to win the World Series this year no matter what, there’s no point in putting your money in a place where it won’t go far. If you can get +3300 at one book when all others are offering +3100, then the higher payout is always the best choice, assuming that all other things are equal and that the site is reputable. This might not be the smartest bet, but it gives you better value, getting it much closer to being the better choice overall statistically.

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